The CED Index

The Current Economic Development (CED) index summarizes six key macro statistics for 42 countries and the Euro area. It focuses on short-run development and documents which nations are currently doing well and which are struggling.

The index considers GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, the public budget balance, the current account balance, and the exchange rate. All six components are weighted equally, reflecting the fact that there are trade-offs: improvements in one component can come at the price of a deteriorating performance in another.

The current ranking as of July 2, 2026, based on six macroeconomic indicators:

What matters more than a country’s current ranking position is its performance over time. Below, each country’s ranking position across recent months is shown, sorted by average CED rank over time. The latest month is July 2026.

The CED index considers the latest available data on six macroeconomic variables:

• GDP (% change on year ago)
• Consumer price inflation (% change on year ago)
• Unemployment rate (%)
• Public budget balance (% of GDP)
• Current account balance (% of GDP)
• Exchange rate to the US Dollar (% change on year ago)

On each variable, countries are ranked. It is best to have high GDP growth, low inflation and unemployment, a positive public budget and current account balance, and an appreciating currency against the US Dollar. All six components are weighted equally, reflecting real trade-offs — expansionary fiscal and monetary policy can lower unemployment and foster growth, but at the price of higher inflation and a larger deficit. The overall CED score is the average rank across all six subindices.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The main indicator economists track, summarizing economic activity. Measured by the spending approach, GDP = C + I + G + NX. Governments and central banks can boost it short-run through spending, tax cuts, or lower interest rates. Its long-term path — driven by a growing working-age population, better capital, and higher technology — matters more than short-term swings. Per capita, it strongly predicts life expectancy, happiness, and access to education.

Consumer Price Inflation. High inflation erodes money's three functions: facilitating transactions, providing a unit of account, and storing value.

Unemployment Rate. A country ideally uses most of its labor force. Lower unemployment brings higher production capacity and a better negotiating position for workers.

Public Budget Balance. The difference between tax revenue and expenditure. A large deficit implies rising public debt that must eventually be paid for — by higher taxes or by inflating it away.

Current Account Balance. Exports and imports of goods and services plus international transfers. A surplus improves the Net International Investment Position and puts upward pressure on the currency; a deficit means a country needs foreign lending.

Exchange Rate. A currency can appreciate or depreciate against the US Dollar. Appreciation makes imports cheaper and citizens more prosperous internationally, but pressures exporters. A central bank can weaken its own currency more easily than strengthen it.

All underlying data are taken from the weekly magazine The Economist, specifically the weekly Economic & financial indicators.

As with all data, caveats apply.